Table 3 Mean and 95% posterior credible intervals (PCI) for the sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of two serum ELISAs and on fecal qPCR and true prevalence (Ps) of MAP in sub-populations 1 to 4

DIC

120.4

134.2

227.9

ELISA A

Se

17.9 (11.4; 25.6)

19.7 (13.1; 27.3)

70.0 (56.0; 85.6)

Sp

94.8 (93.1; 96.3)

95.0 (93.4; 96.5)

98.7 (97.4; 99.9)

ELISA B

Se

17.4 (10.6; 25.9)

23.2 (15.8; 31.5)

80.0 (63.7; 95.3)

Sp

94.0 (92.2; 95.7)

94.8 (93.2; 96.4)

98.9 (97.5; 99.9)

Fecal qPCR

Se

47.5 (29.3; 69.9)

56.3 (36.9; 77.3)

31.3 (21.8; 41.9)

Sp

99.0 (97.9; 99.7)

99.4 (98.4; 99.9)

93.2 (91.6; 94.7)

Sub-pop. 1

P1

0.01 (0.0; 0.03)

1.2 (0.1; 3.8)

6.6 (3.1; 11.0)

Sub-pop. 2

P2

5.4 (1.6; 11.5)

6.2 (2.5; 11.9)

8.1 (4.7; 12.3)

Sub-pop. 3

P3

21.7 (13.1; 34.5)

19.2 (12.1; 29.4)

8.4 (5.2; 12.3)

Sub-pop. 4

P4

57.3 (35.4; 88.8)

47.2 (31.0; 70.4)

15.5 (9.7; 22.6)

Δ_{ELISA A – ELISA B}

Se

0.5 (−5.6; 5.9)

−3.5 (−9.9; 2.5)

−10.0 (−28.8; 9.3)

Sp

0.8 (−0.8; 2.4)

0.2 (−1.2; 1.5)

−0.2 (−1.9; 1.5)

Δ_{Fecal PCR – ELISA A}

Se

29.6 (13.7; 50.9)

36.7 (18.6; 57.9)

−38.8 (−56.4; −22.4)

Sp

4.2 (2.5; 6.0)

4.4 (2.6; 6.2)

−5.5 (−7.4; −3.7)

Δ _{Fecal PCR – ELISA B}

Se

30.1 (14.5; 50.8)

33.1 (16.0; 53.4)

−48.8 (−66.4; −30.8)

Sp

5.0 (3.4; 6.7)

4.6 (2.8; 6.4)

−5.7 (−7.7; −3.8)