Table 2 Parameters for estimating the number of premises encountering animal-welfare conditions during a CSF outbreak

Number of daily new infections

(N_inf)

This parameter was derived from the simulations of four single-site and four multiple-site CSF outbreak scenarios in Indiana (500 iteractions each). The mean and standard error (SE) of number of daily new infections were computed. Normal (0,1) represnted the distribution for number of SE. Thus, the estimates of N_inf varied around an overall mean by different numbers of SE.

N_inf _i  = Mean _i  + Normal (0,1) × SE _i

on day i

Number of premises under movment restriction

(N_MR)

This parameter was estimated as a function of the number of infected premises. Logarithmic regression equation was derived from the simulations of four single-site and six multiple-site CSF outbreak scenarios in Indiana. Normal (17,36) was dedrived from the regression residuals.

N_MR _i  = 201.5 × LN \( \left({\sum}_{t=0}^{t= i} N\_{\mathit{\inf}}_t\right) \)+ Normal (17,36)

on day i

Index for TAW < ED

(Index)

The probability distributions for TAW and ED were published in previous studies [17, 18]. A binary index was created to flag TAW < ED (i.e., Index = 1; else Index = 0), indicating that animal-welfare conditions occurred before an outbreak ended.

Number of premises that encountered animal-welfare consequencs of movement restriction on day i = N_MR _i  × Index _i