Figure 1

(a) Distribution$\stackrel{\mathbf{~}}{\mathit{q}}{\mathbf{(}\mathit{P}}_{\mathit{obs}\mathbf{)}}$of observed within-herd prevalence, P _obs , as observed using the simulated ELISA test and after conditioning on P _obs >0. This replicates how the prevalence data used in this paper, from [15], were collected. Also shown (dashed vertical lines) are the quartile boundaries of that data (denoted in the text as Q₀to Q₄), and the first, second (median) and third quartile boundaries of $\tilde{q}\left(P_{\mathrm{obs}}\right)$, showing the fit of these to Q₁to Q₃. (b) and (c) Distribution of observed prevalence for two individual parameter sets. (b) is from a set of parameters which is given a low weight by the reweighting algorithm as it does not represent the data well, while (c) is given a higher weight.